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Monitoring but,
development is questionable?
Monitoring closely!
LOW <0-30%
Storm Potential
MEDIUM 30-50%
Storm Potential
HIGH >50%
Storm Potential
FLOODS
Flooding possible
for this area
ATLANTIC TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK DISCUSSION: 

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1. STORM INVESTIGATION (INVEST: 93L) MED CHANCE 50%

SPECIAL OUTLOOK TO UPDATE FIRST SYSTEM

AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT DID FIND A SMALL WELL-DEFINED LOW IN THE SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE.  HOWEVER, THE THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW ARE STILL NOT ORGANIZED ENOUGH FOR THIS SYSTEM TO BE CONSIDERED A TROPICAL CYCLONE.  UPPER-LEVEL WINDS COULD BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT BY TOMORROW, AND THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE IT MOVES INLAND OVER THE MEXICAN STATE OF CAMPECHE LATE WEDNESDAY OR EARLY THURSDAY.  LATER IN THE WEEK, TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION APPEARS UNLIKELY DUE TO INTERACTION WITH A COLD FRONT WHILE THE SYSTEM IS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. INTERESTS IN CAMPECHE AND ELSEWHERE IN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM AS TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS COULD NEED TO BE ISSUED WITH SHORT NOTICE.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...MEDIUM...50 PERCENT.
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 5 DAYS...MEDIUM...50 PERCENT..NHC                                          

Seems like NHC does not think this system will have a chance to develop over the Northwest Caribbean into next week.  A bit of good news, I will continue to monitor it into next week just in case it decides to pull a fast one on Florida...RTW
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2. ...TROPICAL WAVE...

TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS FROM 18N50W TO 4N54W MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-14N BETWEEN 48W-57W...NHC                                         

There are no signs of organization at this time...RTW
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3.  STORM INVESTIGATION (INVEST: 92L) MED CHANCE 10%

CHARACTERISTICS DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO WHILE IT MOVES WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH.  UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME LESS CONDUCIVE FOR SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION BY THURSDAY AND DEVELOPMENT AFTER THAT TIME IS NOT LIKELY. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY METEO FRANCE.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...10 PERCENT.
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 5 DAYS...LOW...10 PERCENT.

&&

HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY METEO FRANCE CAN BE FOUND UNDER WMO
HEADER FQNT50 LFPW.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE


N/A...RTW
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Ralph's Tropical Weather (RTW)

Note:
Blue color text is courtesy of The National Hurricane Center/ Tropical Prediction Center. (NHC)

Peach color text is courtesy of Ralph's Tropical Weather. (RTW)


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THERE ARE NO TROPICAL CYCLONES TO REPORT AT THIS TIME...RTW
GALE FORCE
Winds from
34 to 40 knots
A Slight Redesign
A total Redesign
Tropical Depression
T. Storm
Hurricane
T. Storm Warning
Hurricane Warning
2.
Storm Potential Legend
   LOW <0-30%   MED 30-50%     HIGH >50
1.
1021 mb
1018 mb
1013mb
1008 mb
MED
50%
LOW
10%
1007 mb
1019 mb
1007mb
996 mb
3.
1025 mb