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Monitoring but,
development is questionable?
Monitoring closely!
LOW <0-30%
Storm Potential
MEDIUM 40-60%
Storm Potential
HIGH >70%
Storm Potential
FLOODS
Flooding possible
for this area
ATLANTIC TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK DISCUSSION: 

UPDATED: 1050 PM EDT AUG. 26, 2016
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1. Tropical wave extends from 10N25W to 17N23W moving W at 10-15 kt. The wave coincides with subtle 700 mb troughing noted in global model data between 20W-28W that remains embedded within the Monsoon Trough axis. No significant deep convection is occurring with the wave at this time...NHC

There are no signs of tropical cyclone formation at this time...RTW
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2. GASTON

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3. Shower activity associated with a weak area of low pressure located in the central Bahamas has increased during the past several hours but it remains disorganized.  Upper-level winds are not favorable for significant development during the next day or so while the system moves west-northwestward at about 10 mph. Environmental conditions could become a little more conducive for some development when the system reaches the eastern Gulf of Mexico early next week.

Heavy rains, with the potential to cause flash floods and mud slides, are likely to continue over Hispaniola tonight and Saturday. This activity is expected to spread over eastern and central Cuba through the weekend. Gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall are likely over portions of the Bahamas, and will spread into parts of southern Florida and the Florida Keys over the weekend. Interests elsewhere in Florida and the eastern Gulf of Mexico should continue
to monitor the progress of this disturbance.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent...NHC

Open wave will track west to a west-northwest and bring rains and storms for the West Bahamas and Florida Sunday into Monday.  Chances for development where it os located is low due to storng wind shear in the area...RTW

INVEST 99L

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  • NHC PUBLIC ADVISORY AND FORECAST GRAPHICS (Not available at this time)
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4. Tropical wave extends from 09N81W to 19N80W moving W at 15-20 kt. A portion of energy associated with the wave fractured north a couple days ago as the wave entered the Caribbean Sea...with that energy now analyzed as a 1009 mb low and surface trough extending across the SE Bahamas and eastern Cuba. The remaining westward moving wave energy however is noted in global model data as 700 mb troughing and 850 mb relative vorticity fields S of 20N between
78W-84W. Isolated moderate convection is from 15N-20N between 79W-82W. Scattered moderate convection is S of 13N between 75W-85W...including portions of Panama...Costa Rica...and southern Nicaragua. This convection is likely enhanced due to the close proximity of the Monsoon Trough along 09N.....NHC

There are no signs of tropical cyclone formation at this time...RTW
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5. Disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity located over the north-central Gulf of Mexico is associated with a weak trough of low pressure. Conditions are not expected to be favorable for development before it reaches the coast of Texas over the weekend. This disturbance could produce heavy rainfall along the Gulf Coast from Louisiana to southeastern Texas during the next couple of days.  For additional information, please see products from your local National Weather Service office.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent

Forecaster Brennan...NHC

Upper level winds are unfavorable...RTW
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6. An area of disturbed weather, associated with a broad area of low pressure, has formed a couple of hundred miles south of Bermuda. Little motion is anticipated during the next two days, and a slow westward heading should begin thereafter. Development of this system, if any, is likely to be slow to occur due to this system's proximity to dry air.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

Forecaster Avila...NHC

Upper level winds are unfavorable...RTW
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Ralph's Tropical Weather (RTW)

Note:
Blue color text is courtesy of The National Hurricane Center/ Tropical Prediction Center. (NHC)

Peach color text is courtesy of Ralph's Tropical Weather. (RTW)


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This page was last updated on: August 27, 2016
...MAP UPDATED...1030 PM EDT AUG 26, 2016...
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...GASTON FORECAST TO REGAIN HURRICANE INTENSITY ON SATURDAY... NHC
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2.
1.
1026 mb
GASTON
11:00 PM AST Fri Aug 26
Location: 27.0°N 50.8°W
Moving: NW at 15 mph
Min pressure: 997 mb
Max sustained: 65 mph
1024 mb
1021 mb
1010 mb
1021 mb
3.
Upper level low
20%
1020 mb
1009 mb
10%
X
4.
Upper level low
1022 mb
1020 mb
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10%
1016 mb
1006 mb
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1010 mb