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Monitoring but,
development is questionable?
Monitoring closely!
LOW <0-30%
Storm Potential
MEDIUM 30-50%
Storm Potential
HIGH >50%
Storm Potential
FLOODS
Flooding possible
for this area
ATLANTIC TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK DISCUSSION: 

UPDATED: 0600 PM EDT AUG 29, 2015
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1. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED ABOUT 175 MILES WEST OF CONAKRY, GUINEA, CONTINUE TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED.   A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO WHILE THE SYSTEM MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AT 10 TO 15 MPH. INTERESTS IN THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...HIGH...70 PERCENT
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 5 DAYS...HIGH...90 PERCENT

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN..NHC

Slowly becoming better organized...RTW
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2. A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 19N43W TO A 1013 MB LOW PRES LOCATED NEAR 12N45W TO 09N46W. THESE FEATURES ARE MOVING W AT ABOUT 15-20 KT OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATED SOME INVERTED-V PATTERN IN THE CLOUD FIELD AS WELL AS A LARGE AREA OF SAHARAN DUST AROUND THE WAVE AXIS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS SEEN MAINLY W OF LOW CENTER FROM 9N-13N
BETWEEN 45W-48W. THIS WAVE SHOWS UP VERY WELL IN THE LATEST GFS STREAMLINE AND 850 VORTICITY ANALYSIS AND WILL REACH THE TROPICAL N ATLC JUST E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES ON MON....NHC

There are no signs of tropical cyclone formation at this time...RTW
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3. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 56W/57W FROM 10N-20N. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE NEAR THE WAVE AXIS. THE WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS REACHING THE E CARIBBEAN SUN EVENING...AND MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BY MON. THE WAVE IS DEPICTED IN THE LATEST GFS STREAMLINE AND 850 VORTICITY ANALYSIS...AND IT REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF MOISTURE AS OBSERVED IN THE TPW ANIMATION...NHC

There are no signs of tropical cyclone formation at this time...RTW
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4. INVEST 98L ERIKA

The National Hurricane Center has issued the last advisory on Tropical Storm Erika.  The remnants of Erika, a trough of low pressure, are currently located near central Cuba and the central Bahamas and moving west-northwestward at 20 to 25 mph.  This system is producing disorganized thunderstorm activity, and recent satellite wind data indicate it is producing winds to tropical storm force.  Upper-level winds are currently not favorable for re-development of the system into a tropical cyclone.  However, conditions may become more conducive Sunday or Monday while it moves northwestward to northward over the eastern Gulf of Mexico.  Regardless of re-development, the remnants of Erika are expected to spread locally heavy rains and gusty winds across portions of the Bahamas, central and eastern Cuba, and central and southern Florida during the next couple of days.  Additional information on this system can be found in marine forecasts and local forecast products issued by the National Weather Service and the meteorological
services of Cuba and the Bahamas.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent


Upper level trough over the northeast Gulf interacting with a front boundary over the Atlantic that is pulling away toward the northeast is producing unstable conditions over the State of Florida. This is converging with the Remnants of Erika that are forecast to track northwest to night.  This is increasing the potential for Flooding over the state, specially over those areas prone to flooding. 

As for the regeneration of Erika it would depend on the wind shear relaxing, and as I see it now that upper level trough is producing strong southwesterly shear along the eastern Gulf coast and that is not a conducive environment for tropical cyclone formation.  However, since the frontal boundary over the southeast is pulling away slowly to the northeast that may allow for those upper level winds to relax on Sunday and Monday.  Just keep monitoring this system until it is completely out of the area and stay tuned to local media for any updates...RTW
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Ralph's Tropical Weather (RTW)


Note:
Blue color text is courtesy of The National Hurricane Center/ Tropical Prediction Center. (NHC)

Peach color text is courtesy of Ralph's Tropical Weather. (RTW)


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This page was last updated on: August 29, 2015
...MAP UPDATED...0500 PM EDT AUG 29, 2015...
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....MONITORING ERIKA'S REMNANTS FOR RE-GENERATION...UPPERLEVEL WINDS ARE UNFAVORABLE IN THE EASTERN GULF AHEAD OF ERIKA....SOUTH FLORIDA NOW IN A FLOOD WATCH WITH THE APPROACH OF ERIKA'S REMNANTS GUSTY WINDS IN SQUALLS WITH PASSING THUNDERSTORMS AND FLOOD POTENTIAL WITH TRAINING OF RAIN CELLS OVER THE SAME AREAS....RTW
GALE FORCE
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