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LOW <0-30%
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Flooding possible
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UPDATED: 0745 PM EDT MAY 25, 2016
1. A tropical wave over Africa has an axis that extends from 15N07W to 05N11W is moving west at 10 to 15 kt. The wave coincides with an amplified 700 mb trough and is embedded within an area of moderate moisture from the surface to 700 mb behind the wave trough as indicated by CIRA layer precipitable water imagery. Isolated convection is the wave's environment....NHC

There are no chance for development as long as this wave is over land...RTW
2. A tropical wave over the central Tropical Atlantic extends its axis from 12N37W to 02N40W. The wave is moving west at about 15 kt. This wave is noted at 700 mb as a weak trough and it is embedded in a moderate moist environment from the surface to 700 mb as indicated by CIRA layer precipitable water imagery. The Saharan Air Layer imagery shows dry air in the northern wave environment that along with strong deep layer wind shear it is inhibiting convection N of 07N. Scattered moderate convection is from 01N to 07N between 36W and 41W.......NHC

There are showers and storms near the southern axis of this wave associated witht the Inter-tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) however there are no signs of tropical cyclone formation at this time...RTW
3. A tropical wave extends along 63W and south of 12N to inland over eastern Venezuela moving west at around 10 to 15 kt. The wave coincides with a 700 mb trough and is embedded in an area of low to moderate moisture. Isolated convection prevails across the southern half of the wave mainly south of 06N between 58W and 64W.......NHC

There are no signs of tropical cyclone formation at this time...RTW
4. A tropical wave extends across the southwest Caribbean with axis from 17N78W to 06N78W. This wave is moving west at about 5 to 10 kt. Abundant moisture prevails in the wave's environment and with the support of an upper-level trough currently across the west Caribbean, scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are observed S of 16N between 72W and 82W.....NHC

Although non of the models are suggesting any development in this region I will monitor this area of showers and storms. This  wave and low pressure are producing very heavy rains and storms to this region.  Flash floods mudslides are possible...RTW
5. 000
ABNT20 KNHC 252338

740 PM EDT WED MAY 25 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Cloudiness and showers over the western Atlantic Ocean a few hundred miles northeast of the Bahamas are associated with a newly formed area of low pressure.  Environmental conditions are expected to gradually become more conducive for development, and a tropical or subtropical cyclone could form on Friday or Saturday.  The low is forecast to move slowly west-northwestward or northwestward and approach the southeastern United States over the weekend.  The next
Special Tropical Weather Outlook on this disturbance will be issued by 9 AM EDT on Thursday.  For additional information on this system, see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be
found under AWIPS Header NFDHSFAT1 and WMO Header FZNT01 KWBC.

Forecaster Kimberlain...NHC

At this time upper level conditions are not favorable for development at this time.  A low has formed in association with the disturbance.  Conditions will slowly become more favorable for a sub-tropical or tropical storm to form during the next few days.  Georgia to the Carolinas should monitor this system during the Memorial Day Weekend....RTW

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This page was last updated on: May 25, 2016
...MAP UPDATED...0801 PM EDT MAY 25, 2016...
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Courtesy of  USPLN NAPLN
....Cloudiness and showers over the western Atlantic Ocean a few hundred miles northeast of the Bahamas are associated with a newly formed area of low pressure...NHC ....The Eastern Pacific hurricane season started on May 15, 2016 and here on the Atlantic side I began monitoring tropical waves as they travel across the Atlantic from the African coast. So check back daily for new updates....Funds are running low please help keep this site online and thanks for your generosity....RTW
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